I most certainly think that, like too much candy, this digital mind-crack media that everyone is so fascinated with right now will eventually wear off. I know on my YT channel, everyone has suddenly become so nice to me and overly appreciative of my content. I see this as evidence that they are fed up with having YT shove shorts in their face all day long. But, as good as it feels to be appreciated, it boils down to simple economics. It does not pay the bills to create for YT anymore. There is no incentive for me to continue.
I have 18K subs and I am making less on YouTube now than I was three years ago with just a few thousand subs. I am still getting good views, but my CPM has dropped by 80%. Before July of 2021 (when YT created the Shorts Fund and tweaked the algo to push Shorts) I was earning on average $15 per 1000 views. Now, I earn about 3 to 4. I produce evergreen content so, my content is as popular today as when I first released it. I have videos that are seven years old that are still in my top ten.
Yes, one day, people will grow tired of Shorts. They will grow tired of being psychologically manipulated and led around by a carrot on a stick (which is what YT's algo is actually doing now.) They will realize that YT is telling them what to watch, not SERVING them what they want. This will happen one day. The issue is, YT is losing its bread-and-butter creators in the meantime. I have been with YT since 2005. Yes, from the very beginning. Longer than anyone else here. YT was built by people like me. Until YT started pushing shorts, they PROMOTED long-form content and encouraged creators to make longer and longer content. For years YT pushed creators to make longer videos. The promise was, "Make longer videos so you can earn more money". Now, they have done a 180 reversal and stabbed all those creators in the back and now say, "If you want views and to be suggested, you have to make SHORTS". So all that hard work that creators put in for years doing what YT told them to do, is now losing value daily. It is an outright betrayal.
YT might have been King of the Hill, and they could have still been King of the long-form content hill, but they stuck a stick of dynamite in that hill and blew it up, so they can try to climb the TikTok hill. I don't know what the future holds, but I have been on this earth for a while now and have observed the mistakes of the past. I think that if YT continues on this course, they will not only lose their battle for Shorts King, they will lose their position as King of the YouTube University crowd. Other platforms are fighting for this niche while YouTube leadership is doing everything in its power to dump it and crush those creators. There is no way they hold on to it if they do not start showing us some love.
Am I saying YT will come to an end? No. I am saying that it will never again be King. It will not even be a prince or duke. You simply cannot step on the people that built your business while other platforms are welcoming them with love and open arms and expect to win.